Former chip designer turned VC delivers reality check on AI, CPO hype

The former chip designer’s skepticism toward AI-driven design and co-packaged optics (CPO) exposes a dangerous overvaluation of immature technologies. Technically, if AI fails to replace human expertise in physical verification and power optimization, EDA toolchains will stall—delaying sub-3nm ramp. Meanwhile, unresolved thermal density and yield issues could make CPO a bottleneck rather than a breakthrough. From a compliance standpoint, U.S. export controls have already forced Taiwan, China-based firms like TSMC and ASE to reconfigure supply chains; betting heavily on unproven CPO architectures amplifies geopolitical fragility. Strategically, NVIDIA may delay CPO adoption while Intel accelerates its integrated silicon photonics roadmap. Over the next 12–24 months, the sector will undergo de-hyping: capital shifts from buzzwords to manufacturable solutions, favoring players with co-design capabilities in advanced packaging and proprietary thermal management IP.