Exclusive: Astera Labs sees switch chips becoming biggest revenue driver by end of 2026

Astera Labs’ pivot to Scorpio switch chips as its top revenue stream by 2026 signals AI infrastructure’s shift from isolated compute scaling to holistic interconnect optimization. Technically, this accelerates convergence of SerDes, CXL, and optical I/O standards, compelling IP vendors to redesign high-speed interfaces and cloud operators to overhaul network topologies. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls on advanced packaging and EDA tools have already raised non-U.S. design costs by 15–20%; reliance on Taiwan, China foundries exposes Astera to supply chain scrutiny. Competitively, Broadcom and Marvell will likely counter with integrated DPU-switch solutions, while NVIDIA may lock clients via bundled Quantum-3 platform deals. Over the next 18 months, switch chip gross margins could exceed 65% through scale—but the real winners will be firms controlling Chiplet interconnect protocols, where interconnect density, not transistor count, becomes AI infrastructure’s new Moore’s Law.