Etron sees DRAM rally stretching into 2027 as shortages persist

The AI server boom’s insatiable demand for high-bandwidth memory is triggering a structural DRAM shortage—Etron’s reported double-digit monthly price hikes reflect a generational tech mismatch, not transient noise. Technically, HBM3E/HBM4 adoption is cannibalizing DDR5 wafer allocation, tightening TSMC’s CoWoS capacity further in favor of U.S.-Korean giants and sidelining smaller module makers. On compliance, U.S. export controls have already inflated customer qualification costs for non-U.S. suppliers; an expanded BIS ECCN list in 2026 could force second-tier DRAM firms to reconfigure global logistics. Strategically, Samsung and SK Hynix will likely enforce pricing discipline to maximize margins, while Micron leverages CHIPS Act subsidies to ramp Arizona output and squeeze Taiwanese rivals’ expansion window. Even if consumer electronics remain weak, AI infrastructure will sustain elevated prices through 2027—yet a breakthrough in HBM yield beyond that point may trigger a collapse in standard DRAM valuation.