Industry Analysis
DeepSeek’s in-house inference chip marks a strategic pivot from AI 'compute tenants' to 'architecture definers.' Technically, this forces a localized rebuild of compiler stacks, drivers, and model quantization tools—eroding CUDA’s ecosystem lock-in. Yet, reliance on SMIC’s constrained 3nm EUV capacity exposes it to yield and cost risks. Compliance-wise, bypassing NVIDIA mitigates U.S. export controls but invites secondary sanctions if gray-market equipment is involved. In the market, Huawei’s Ascend remains China’s near-term training backbone, but vertical players like DeepSeek are chipping away at its ecosystem dominance. NVIDIA, meanwhile, is deepening cloud partnerships with Blackwell to fortify its non-China moat. Over the next 18 months, China’s AI silicon landscape will split into three camps: Huawei for training, internet giants for inference, and agile startups betting on full-stack co-design. Without advanced packaging or core IP autonomy, however, global relevance remains limited.
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