Chiplet market projected to reach USD 157.23 billion by 2030 - Global Sources

The $157B 2030 figure is a red herring. What matters is the structural power shift it encodes: the industry bottleneck is migrating from lithography to packaging. When EUV capacity becomes a geopolitical lever, chiplets—pairing mature-node compute dies with advanced interconnect—effectively dilute the monopoly a single lithography node holds over system performance. Export controls are being eroded by the technology path itself. On the tech stack, UCIe 2.0 is converting packaging interfaces from proprietary protocols into public infrastructure. EDA vendors must re-architect heterogeneous verification flows by 2026, or design teams face a "can draw, can't package" deadlock. Strategically, Intel's Foveros Direct bets on 3D stacking; TSMC's CoWoS-L defends the 2.5D moat; ASE, JCET, and Tongfu Micro fight for OSAT share. AMD's Zen 4/5 already proved area efficiency can substitute for process-node gaps. The 18-month tail effect won't show up in GPU roadmaps—it'll hit HBM4-chiplet co-packaging. Once memory bandwidth becomes the hard constraint for AI inference, 2.5D packaging shifts from optional to mandatory, and OSAT valuations reprice from foundry to system-integrator.