China's memory chipmakers extend their boom into the third quarter as capacity, policy risks build

A 54-billion-RMB quarterly profit is not a milestone—it is a cycle-top flare. The 2017-2018 Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron overcapacity bust is being replayed on Chinese DRAM lines, except AI-server demand for HBM and DDR5 partially cushions the downside. The real swing factor is not demand; it is equipment access. If Washington extends restrictions beyond EUV into DUV, etch, and deposition tooling, China's 2027 capacity ramp stalls outright, and the inventory overhang shifts from a cyclical risk to an asset-impairment event. For Samsung and SK Hynix, that is precisely the window to defend pricing power—rival expansion choked, the global supply gap persisting, HBM premiums holding for at least two more quarters. Fabless players like NVIDIA and AMD face rigid BOM cost escalation, ultimately passed through to end consumers. My 12-to-24-month call: until equipment policy lands, the upward-pricing logic holds; once it lands, a 25-to-35 percent DRAM ASP correction within 18 months is the base case. The market is pricing in scarcity; it has not yet priced in the policy shock that will end it.