China's EUV technology 'at a similar stage to ASML in 2004,' analyst claims

UBS analyst François-Xavier Bouvignies recently claimed that China's capability in producing advanced lithography equipment is comparable to ASML's position in the mid-2000s. While Chinese companies h... Read original →

China’s progress in advanced lithography remains at a comparable stage to ASML’s position in the mid-2000s, yet it has not yet achieved commercial viability. Although SMEE introduced its first immersion DUV scanner in 2023, no procurement or technical validation confirms its adoption by chipmakers. This stagnation impacts the entire upstream ecosystem, particularly in critical areas like CD uniformity and focus control, where domestic vendors still rely heavily on foreign suppliers. Regulatory constraints continue to tighten, limiting access to cutting-edge equipment and increasing supply chain risks for Chinese firms. Meanwhile, global leaders like TSMC and NVIDIA are reinforcing their competitive edge through enhanced ASML collaboration and process optimization. In the near term, Chinese manufacturers may accelerate in-house R&D, but long-term success hinges on overcoming technical hurdles in materials, optics, and control systems. Over the next 12–24 months, the semiconductor supply chain will likely become more fragmented, with Chinese firms risking marginalization if they fail to close the technological gap in EUV capabilities.