CanSemi IPO exposes strains in China's mature-node chip push

CanSemi’s IPO bid reveals structural tensions in China’s mature-node scaling strategy. Technically, its persistent losses highlight systemic weaknesses in cost control, yield ramping, and pricing power at 28nm and above—delaying validation cycles for domestic lithography materials and etch tools while hindering downstream MCU and PMIC cost reduction. Compliance-wise, U.S. export controls have inflated CapEx by over 30%, and waning local subsidies amplify operational leverage risks. TSMC’s Nanjing fab and SMIC will likely tighten customer lock-in via long-term agreements and IP ecosystems, squeezing second-tier foundries. Within 18 months, consolidation is inevitable: only players with differentiated process platforms (e.g., BCD, CIS) or strong state backing will survive the shakeout.