Breakthrough at CXMT: HBM margins under threat? - XTB.com

CXMT's HBM breakthrough is not incremental catch-up—it is a structural dismantling of the HBM pricing architecture. For three years, SK Hynix and Samsung have locked HBM gross margins above 60%, underpinned by TSV stacking and CoWoS packaging bottlenecks. Once a Chinese player achieves production-grade yield at the HBM2E tier, the bargaining power of AI chip designers shifts decisively; the scarcity tax on single-source supply evaporates. Upstream, Applied Materials and Lam Research face compressed pricing power on TSV etch tools, while OSATs gain volume as packaging constraints ease. On the compliance front, BIS export controls have not fully sealed the mature-node pathway, creating a structural crack in the containment strategy at the HBM2E generation. Expect the 2016-2018 DRAM playbook to repeat: SK Hynix accelerates HBM3E to preserve generational lead; Samsung likely slashes prices 20-30% to lock in long-term contracts. Within 12-24 months, the HBM industry margin center will compress from 60% toward 40-45%. The technology monopoly premium yields to scale-cost competition. This is neither bullish nor bearish—it is the inflection point where HBM transitions from a seller's market to a buyer's market.