Assessing ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Performance - simplywall.st

This article evaluates the current valuation of ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) following its strong recent stock performance. The company has seen its share price rise by approximately 11% over the past... Read original →

ASML’s valuation now shows clear froth: its 57.9x P/E, while modestly below the U.S. semiconductor equipment average, vastly exceeds DCF-derived fair value—implying ~130% overpricing. Technologically, despite its EUV monopoly, TSMC and Samsung’s rapid High-NA EUV adoption pressures clients in Taiwan, China and mainland China to explore alternatives, eroding ASML’s long-term pricing power. Geopolitical compliance costs are surging as U.S. export controls on advanced tools force heavy investment in licensing, logistics, and localized support, squeezing margins. Rivals Lam Research and Applied Materials are capitalizing by bundling etch and deposition solutions, offering 'non-litho' pathways to capture fab spending. Over the next 12–24 months, any shortfall in memory recovery or AI capex slowdown could trigger a sharp valuation reset, exposing the fragility of 'techno-faith' premiums.