ASML Won the Lithography War. What Happened Next Changed the Entire Semiconductor Industry - Dr. Robert Castellano's Semiconductor Deep Dive Newsletter

This article delves into ASML's decisive victory in the lithography sector and its transformative impact on the entire semiconductor industry. Since the initial thesis proposed in 2018 regarding ASML'... Read original →

ASML’s dominance in EUV lithography has not simplified chipmaking but redistributed complexity—shifting it to deposition, etch, and inspection processes, thereby boosting demand for Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA tools. This technical cascade reinforces a 'one-superpower, multiple-strong' equipment landscape: ASML controls the critical bottleneck, while others thrive in essential adjacent domains. U.S. export controls on High-NA EUV to China are accelerating supply chain diversification efforts by TSMC and Samsung, yet ASML’s ecosystem remains irreplaceable in the near term. Over the next 12–24 months, rising co-optimization costs of High-NA integration will likely price out smaller foundries from advanced nodes, further consolidating the industry. Canon and Nikon face existential risk unless they pivot aggressively into High-NA or advanced packaging lithography niches.