ASML: The Rally May Be Overdone (NASDAQ:ASML) - Seeking Alpha

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has benefited significantly from the AI-driven surge in chip demand, with its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines p... Read original →

ASML’s current valuation has priced in the full AI boom, with a 52x P/E far exceeding its historical norm, while its technological moat shows early signs of erosion. Although EUV remains essential for sub-3nm nodes, TSMC and other foundries are actively hedging by advancing High-NA EUV adoption alongside alternative patterning strategies like multi-patterning and novel materials—diluting ASML’s pricing power. Tightening export controls, especially on shipments to Taiwan, China and South Korea, are inflating compliance overhead and disrupting service logistics. While Nikon can’t challenge EUV dominance, rivals like Applied Materials and Lam Research are encroaching upstream via advanced packaging and hybrid bonding. Over the next 12–24 months, any delay in High-NA EUV ramp or a slowdown in AI capex could expose ASML to a ‘high valuation, low growth elasticity’ trap, making its downside risk materially higher than peers like NVIDIA or Broadcom.