ASML’s Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography and the Limits of Reverse Engineering in China - War on the Rocks

This article explores ASML's dominant position in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) technology and its strategic implications for China's semiconductor industry. ASML is the sole global producer o... Read original →

ASML's dominance in extreme ultraviolet lithography has become a critical bottleneck in the global semiconductor supply chain. Chinese manufacturers seeking to advance beyond 3nm nodes are heavily reliant on ASML's EUV systems, yet only ASML currently produces these machines. Despite unverified claims of equipment leakage to China, the intricate integration, process control, and accumulated engineering know-how required make replication extremely difficult. This constrains China’s ability to develop high-end AI and data center chips independently, intensifying U.S. export controls. In the short term, China must accelerate domestic innovation in materials, components, and processes, but full self-reliance remains out of reach. Over the next 12 to 24 months, global semiconductor supply chains will further fragment, with intensified competition between technological containment and self-sufficiency efforts.