ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) Stock Looks Fully Priced After Strong Recent Gains - simplywall.st

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) has shown strong recent performance, with a 7.7% gain over the past week and a 26.86% increase over 30 days, delivering a 146.87% total shareholder return over the past ye... Read original →

ASML’s valuation has been stretched by euphoric AI capex expectations, pricing in linear growth of EUV demand for years ahead. Technically, its High-NA EUV dominance is accelerating adoption at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel—but emerging chiplet architectures and advanced packaging may reduce reliance on extreme lithography, posing a substitution threat. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls have inflated compliance costs across ASML’s global supply chain, while China’s rapid build-out of domestic 28nm DUV lines threatens long-term pricing power in mature nodes. Rivals like Lam Research and Applied Materials are pivoting to hybrid bonding and materials innovation to bypass lithography bottlenecks in AI chip manufacturing. Over the next 12–24 months, any slowdown in AI server orders or a CAPEX shift toward memory recovery could widen the gap between ASML’s market price and fundamental value.