Industry Analysis
ASML’s near-monopoly in EUV lithography is accelerating AI chip production below the 3nm node, reinforcing TSMC and NVIDIA’s dominance in high-performance computing. Technologically, extended EUV lead times are forcing foundries to pre-commit capacity, raising barriers to entry. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls on advanced tools protect ASML’s revenue in allied markets but inflate its global support costs and constrain procurement flexibility for clients in Taiwan, China and mainland China. Rivals like Nikon or Canon pose no credible threat in High-NA EUV, though Tokyo Electron may nibble at process-integration margins via track-litho co-optimization. Over the next 12–24 months, even if investors shy away due to valuation concerns, ASML will remain the de facto tollgate of AI infrastructure—its order backlog already stretches into 2028, far beyond typical earnings visibility.
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