Industry Analysis
NVIDIA’s dominance stems less from raw GPU specs and more from CUDA’s ecosystem lock-in, triggering a technical cascade: downstream AI frameworks are forced to optimize around its instruction set, while upstream HBM and 3nm foundry capacity gets monopolized, squeezing AMD’s supply leverage. Geopolitical friction is becoming operational—U.S. export controls may temporarily boost pricing power, but disruptions at logistics hubs in Taiwan, China or Hong Kong, China could inflate global delivery costs. In response to GB300 momentum, AMD will likely fast-track MI400 adoption and deepen ROCm integration, possibly partnering with Samsung on HBM4 countermeasures. Over the next 18 months, NVIDIA’s real constraint won’t be demand but physical limits in EUV tools and CoWoS packaging; any TSMC capacity delay risks a sharp repricing of its 'infinite growth' narrative.
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