Analysis: Memory makers hold US$38 billion that isn't theirs to keep

Memory manufacturers' long-term pricing agreements are creating a supply chain oligopoly, squeezing upstream material suppliers like silicon wafers and photoresists, while distorting midstream foundry capacity allocation and increasing downstream OEM costs. With potential U.S. export controls tightening, companies may accelerate localization strategies and supply chain reshoring. Competitors may respond with R&D investments or joint procurement to counterbalance pricing dominance. Within the next 12 to 24 months, the market is likely to see price rebounds and capacity realignment, especially amid surging AI chip demand, triggering a new cyclical shift in the memory sector.