AI supercycle could drive semiconductor market beyond US$2 trillion by 2030

The AI supercycle is triggering a full-stack technological realignment, not just demand surges. Advanced packaging, HBM memory, and photonic interconnects are shifting from niche to mainstream, forcing equipment and materials suppliers into rapid iteration. Escalating U.S. export controls—combined with heightened geopolitical sensitivity around Taiwan, China and Hong Kong, China—are inflating compliance costs for global foundries by 15–20%, making supply chain redundancy a fixed operational expense. The sub-2nm race among TSMC, Samsung, and Intel has evolved beyond technical prowess into a contest of state-backed capital and manufacturing sovereignty. Over the next 12–24 months, second-tier foundries will retreat into specialized niches, while the surge in custom AI ASICs will ignite consolidation—fabless firms lacking vertical integration will be first to exit.