Industry Analysis
The ramp-up of 3nm nodes is fundamentally reshaping AI chip design paradigms: NVIDIA leverages its CUDA moat to dominate high-end training, while AMD aggressively penetrates inference with MI300, pressuring TSMC (Taiwan, China) to expand CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. Geopolitical friction has materially inflated supply chain redundancy costs—U.S. CHIPS Act subsidy thresholds and EU carbon tariffs are accelerating backend test/assembly shifts to Mexico and Vietnam. While newcomers like Intellectia AI can’t dethrone the GPU duopoly, they’re fueling demand for custom ASICs, eroding the premium on general-purpose architectures. Over the next 18 months, NVIDIA faces an energy-efficiency wall post-H200; AMD could breach NVIDIA’s software moat if it breaks UCIe interconnect limitations with proprietary chiplet protocols. The real battleground isn’t transistor density—it’s who adapts software stacks fastest to sparsity and near-memory computing, thereby controlling next-gen AI infrastructure pricing.
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