AI drives memory shortage through 2027, PSMC lifts 2Q26 margin to 28%

The AI compute arms race is driving structural shortages in mature-node foundry capacity. PSMC’s 28% gross margin isn’t a cyclical bounce—it reflects synchronized demand for power management ICs supporting HBM stacks and AI accelerators. Technically, this accelerates adoption of hybrid-bonding packaging like CoWoS-L and forces IDMs to revive legacy 200mm fabs. On compliance, U.S. export controls now indirectly constrain even >28nm nodes; Taiwanese foundries risk heightened licensing scrutiny if overexposed to mainland AI clients, inflating operational overhead. Competitively, UMC and Vanguard may reallocate automotive capacity toward high-margin edge-AI power chips. Over the next 18 months, mature-node pricing could sustain 5–8% quarterly increases, and PSMC’s profitability inflection signals that any foundry with integrated high-voltage BCD or GaN capability will command premium pricing—so long as AI hardware infrastructure remains undersupplied.