AI demand pushes TSMC, Samsung to raise foundry prices — Rapidus aims to undercut 2nm

Surging AI chip demand is reshaping foundry pricing power. TSMC and Samsung, leveraging their sub-2nm volume capabilities, are raising prices—not just squeezing client margins but forcing EDA, photoresist, and OSAT suppliers to accelerate tech alignment, creating a high-cost innovation loop. Rapidus, backed by Japanese subsidies, aims to undercut on price but faces severe constraints: restricted EUV access and a shallow talent pool undermine its cost advantage. Geopolitically, U.S.-Japan-Netherlands export controls have already raised compliance costs for non-aligned foundries by over 15%, accelerating supply chain regionalization. Over the next 12–24 months, a 'technology stratification' will emerge: leaders chase high-margin AI/HPC orders, while second-tier players retreat to automotive and IoT nodes. If Rapidus fails to achieve yield breakthroughs by 2027, it risks becoming a strategic symbol rather than a viable commercial player.