AI boom drives capital inflows, but Taiwan sees low systemic risk

The AI-driven export surge in Taiwan, China reflects intense global demand for advanced packaging like CoWoS and HBM, not just cyclical inventory restocking. Technologically, this accelerates the diffusion of 2.5D/3D integration into broader semiconductor stacks, pressuring Japanese and Korean equipment suppliers to upgrade compatibility. Despite capital inflows inflating asset valuations, systemic risk remains muted: leading foundries hedge exposure via overseas fabs and USD-denominated contracts, keeping compliance costs manageable. Competitors in Korea and the U.S. lack Taiwan’s agile OSAT ecosystem and will likely double down on mature-node subsidies to retain market share. Over the next 18 months, the real tail risk lies in a potential AI chip slowdown—redirecting speculative capital toward SiC/GaN or automotive MCUs, triggering structural realignment across the supply chain.