Agreements to buy chipmaking equipment from ASML have not been reached - Shanghai Metals Market

The absence of a closed deal is more damaging than an outright denial — it traps buyers in a compliance limbo where uncertainty compounds cost. Technical cascade: Stalled DUV procurement forces 28nm fab expansion to bet on domestic lithography. SMEE's immersion tool validation shifts from "acceleration item" to "existential deadline," while ASML's upstream Zeiss optics and Trumpf laser modules lose incremental demand simultaneously. Compliance friction: BIS's per-transaction export licensing regime adds 15-20% to per-unit compliance costs. This is not a pricing negotiation — it is a structural transaction tax embedded in the regulatory architecture. Competitive response: Nikon and Canon cannot fill the high-end gap, but expect aggressive repricing in the mid-range segment. TSMC's 3nm/2nm capacity buildout in Taiwan, China gains a structural window of reduced equipment-constrained competition. 12-24 month trajectory: The equipment market will complete its "dual-track solidification" — advanced nodes (<7nm) fully decouple, mature nodes (28nm+) fracture into two independent supply chains. ASML's revenue mix irreversibly tilts away from the Chinese market. Domestic equipment makers' valuation logic pivots from "substitution narrative" to "actual shipment verification." The gray zone is closing; bifurcation is accelerating.