Industry Analysis
This global chip selloff signals more than a Wall Street correction—it reflects peak AI capex expectations. Samsung and SK Hynix are heavily betting on 3nm logic and HBM3E, yet AI server demand growth has plummeted from 70% in Q1 to under 30% in Q2, creating a mismatch between capacity investment and real consumption. Upstream EUV delivery bottlenecks and tightening U.S.-Netherlands export controls are inflating Korean compliance costs by over 15%. Micron may pivot DRAM output toward automotive and edge AI, while SMIC expands mature-node share to sidestep geopolitical risk in advanced nodes. Over the next 18 months, only firms focused on HBM and AI-optimized memory will command valuation premiums; others risk exclusion from core supply chains. SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing aims to anchor U.S. capital—but in a deepening U.S.-China tech decoupling, its dual-dependency strategy could amplify volatility rather than hedge it.
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